DEA Enforcement Continues to Decline in FY 2024

Published May 15, 2024

The government reported 4,356 new prosecutions that resulted from cases referred by the Drug Enforcement Administration during the first six months of FY 2024. If this activity continues at the same pace, the annual total of prosecutions will be 8,712 for this fiscal year. According to the case-by-case information analyzed by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC), this estimate is down six (6) percent over the past fiscal year when the number of prosecutions totaled 9,271. DEA referrals to federal prosecutors have similarly been declining.

This downward trend is a continuation of patterns that have lasted for a number of years. Compared to five years ago, when prosecutions totaled 13,104, the estimate of FY 2024 prosecutions of DEA-led investigations is down 33.5 percent. Current prosecutions are also sharply lower than they were twenty years ago when 18,132 filings were reported. The pace of DEA referrals to federal prosecutors has also dropped by almost half since FY 2004.

Growth and Decline in DEA Enforcement

The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) was established in 1973. A federal “war on drugs” had been declared by President Nixon back in June of 1971, and the DEA was created to combat illicit drug trafficking. This began a period of increasing activity for the agency. Reliable figures started in FY 1986 when federal prosecutors adopted a system for more systematically tracking drug matters on a suspect-by-suspect, defendant-by-defendant, basis. See Figure 1. Results reported are based upon these detailed data obtained by TRAC under the Freedom of Information Act after extended successful litigation against the Department of Justice.

During this initial period in DEA’s history, up until federal priorities shifted following the terrorist attacks of 9/11, DEA enforcement activity continued to increase. Referrals reached a plateau during FY 2002-2006, and after this high point have generally begun a long period of decline. There was a mini rise during the Trump administration, although this reflected increases largely in DEA nondrug referrals rather than an increase in DEA drug investigations.[1]

However, Figure 1 also shows a curious anomaly starting after FY 2019. Prosecutions continued falling and numbers declined by one-third. However, convictions after their drop because of the shutdown in 2020, actually increased rising even above the number of new prosecutions filed in FY 2023 and during the first six months of FY 2024. This seems counter-intuitive. How can the number of convictions exceed prosecutions that are filed?

Of course, the defendants sentenced in any year are not necessarily the same defendants in federal court cases that began that year. However, this increase was not explained by a shift in focus to meth and fentanyl offenses by the DEA, nor changes in overall conviction patterns. During FY 2019, for example, 86.8 percent of prosecutions resulted in a conviction, while in FY 2023 it was 86.3 percent – a half of a percent lower.

We do know that the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting partial shutdown of the federal government beginning in March 2020 disrupted federal investigations and prosecution activity, significantly impacting enforcement activities by the Drug Enforcement agency.[2] It now requires many more days after referrals arrive at federal prosecutor offices for cases to be filed, and court proceedings to conclude through convictions and sentencing. This along with other factors may have created a sharp increase in the length of time it takes for DEA referrals to move through the system.

As shown in Table 1 above, the average number of days between the receipt of a DEA referral and determination of guilt or innocence of the defendant along with sentencing for those convicted, has shot up. Increased processing times were seen in most U.S. Attorney offices. More convictions in FY 2023 thus reflect years where the number of referrals and prosecutions were much higher, and some cases began as part of the higher volume of referrals received back in FY 2019.[3]

Indeed, the average case which had taken 635 days to conclude with conviction and sentencing in FY 2019 has climbed by 54 percent to 975 days on average in FY 2023. So far during the first six months of FY 2024 while processing times are still elevated, they fell slightly to an average of 934 days and convictions per month fell for the first time. In FY 2023 they were 9,525 and if the pace for FY 2024 continues convictions will only reach 8,824 as shown above in Table 1.