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While investors see upside for prison companies, they’re showing signs of caution. CoreCivic’s stock is valued at only a little more than half its 2016 peak. GEO Group has had a stronger recovery, but it’s still shy of its top value, reached earlier this year.
It’s not clear that the government would require a dramatic increase in detention center capacity even if Trump’s deportation plans are enacted. Border crossings have fallen, cutting into the demand for facilities to hold people arrested as they come into the U.S. Undocumented immigrants not caught at the border are entitled to post bond while removal proceedings move through immigration courts. Those courts face a backlog of more than 520,000 cases, according to the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University, which tracks law enforcement statistics.
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