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Most Border Patrol Apprehensions are for Repeat Crossers, But Agency Data Doesn’t Yet Provide the Full Picture

Published Sep 9, 2022

Using detailed government records, TRAC finds that the percent of Border Patrol (BP) apprehensions that comprise repeat border crossers did not significantly increase when, under Title 42[1], illegal border crossers were not penalized or sanctioned before they were expelled. This finding, based on data obtained from the Border Patrol, is contrary to agency contentions and arguments by policy analysts that immediate expulsions without applying meaningful sanctions such as criminal prosecution to repeat crossers encourages illegal reentry attempts.

Understanding the rate of unlawful reentry after deportation or expulsion—what Border Patrol refers to as “recidivism”—is an important factor in evaluating border enforcement. This report by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University presents findings from a detailed analysis of case-by-case records on all Border Patrol Title 42 apprehensions. It focuses on just how often repeat apprehensions occurred and the characteristics of those who attempt reentries.

Border Patrol records show that some migrants were remarkably persistent in the number of attempts made even after being apprehended not just once or twice, but many times. In these data, previous apprehensions for the same individual as far back as two decades ago were covered, providing a more comprehensive view of previous encounters of illegal reentry attempts. When examining this longer span of time, these records indicated that many individuals had been apprehended well over just a few times, and one individual had been previously apprehended on 81 separate occasions. For most BP apprehensions – about 60 percent – the individual had in fact been previously arrested for at least one unlawful entry.[2] See Figure 1.

figure1
Figure 1. Border Patrol Expulsions Under Title 42 and Prior Encounters, March 20, 2020 - September 30, 2021

These case-by-case details on apprehensions analyzed in this report and obtained by TRAC through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests have been added to TRAC’s free web query tool tracking for the past 15 years all Border Patrol arrests under both Title 8 and Title 42 so the public can delve further into this important topic.

The Importance of Data on Border “Recidivism”

The Border Patrol refers to repeat attempts at unlawful border crossing as recidivism. Yet the true extent of recidivism has not been adequately measured. The Border Patrol defines recidivism as “the percentage of individuals apprehended more than one time by the Border Patrol within a fiscal year” and the agency publishes annual recidivism rates, estimating 10 percent for FY 2017 and 27 percent for FY 2021. [3]

However, the agency’s methodology for producing these numbers has been called into question. The General Accounting Office (GAO), for instance, has been critical of Border Patrol’s methodology, finding specifically that the Border Patrol grossly underestimates the actual rates of recidivism for two main reasons. In the detailed study GAO did in 2017 it first found that as many as half of Border Patrol apprehensions in some sectors had not actually left the country (due to lawful parole, pending court proceedings, or other reasons), and therefore should not be included in a calculation of people who could attempt to re-enter the country. Yet the agency did not adjust recidivism rates to exclude these, thereby under-representing the overall percent of re-apprehensions.

Second, the GAO criticized Border Patrol’s recidivism rates because it only included prior deportation data up to one year in the past, which meant that migrants who had been previously apprehended and deported more than a year prior were treated as if they were making their first entry.

When the GAO adjusted for these two issues—by excluding data on individuals who had stayed in the United States and including data on individuals for three years—the GAO found that recidivism rates were, on average, twice as high as the Border Patrol’s calculations. In two Border Patrol sectors, the GAO found more than seven times greater recidivism than BP’s calculated rates. [4]

As a result of the Border Patrol’s incomplete analysis of its apprehension data, the public lacks accurate and reliable figures on Title 8 as well as Title 42 recidivism rates. Moreover, treating Border Patrol’s apprehension totals as if they were totals of individual people has contributed to confusion about the scale of unlawful migration. Finally, a lack of accurate data on repeat border crossing means that it is difficult to accurately assess factors that contribute to recidivism or to assess claims that specific border enforcement strategies meaningfully deter unlawful migration. If recidivism rises, other things equal, the number of apprehensions will increase, perhaps even dramatically, even if the number of individuals attempting to cross between ports of entry is unchanged.

TRAC’s analysis of repeat attempts to cross the border unlawfully during the implementation of Title 42 expulsions along the U.S.-Mexico border presents a unique opportunity to shed light on some of these issues.

How Many Border Patrol Apprehensions Are For Repeaters?

Details on over 1.2 million individual apprehensions by the Border Patrol covering the period from March 20, 2020, when the Trump administration initiated this new Title 42 policy, and extending through September 30, 2021, after President Biden assumed office were analyzed. These data reveal that over 700 thousand apprehensions out of the 1.2 million involved individuals who had previously been apprehended attempting to enter the country. This translates to almost 6 out of every ten apprehensions were of repeat offenders. [5] Just four out of ten (40.8%) had no record of a previous apprehension. Nearly one out of four (24.6%) had three or more previous apprehensions.

However, repeat reentry attempts varied markedly by demographic characteristics and whether or not the noncitizen was from Mexico. Not surprisingly those from Mexico had a higher likelihood of previous reentry attempts, as did single adults and adult groupings without children (“Other Adults”).

For nonMexican adults without children, a total of 61.4 percent of apprehensions had been of individuals apprehended previously, and closer to one in five (21.6%) had three or more previous apprehensions. For Mexican adults without children, this rises to 66.6 percent with prior encounters, while 30.6 percent had three or more. See Table 1A. Further details on just how many previous attempts beyond 3 were recorded is found in Table 1B.

At the other end of the spectrum were unaccompanied children. Only 6.3 percent of the apprehensions of unaccompanied nonMexican children had previous reentry attempts. In contrast, the majority (53.6%) of unaccompanied Mexican children had been previously picked up – their rates were only modestly lower than for all Border Patrol encounters.

Apprehensions of children who were part of family groups also had fewer reentry attempts, however it was unclear whether Customs and Border Protection (CBP) records failed to record some children’s arrests when they were part of a family group. For example, 71.8 percent of apprehensions of nonMexican adults with children showed no prior apprehension, while 97.8 percent of their children had no recorded prior apprehensions. It is, of course, possible that some of the parents had made previous reentry attempts when traveling alone. A wide differential was also observed for Mexican adults with children compared to the children they entered with. See Tables 1A and 1B.

These data are also unique in that illegal entry attempts for each individual were tracked for two decades. The data make clear that meaningful analysis of recidivism requires details on the composition of who the Border Patrol picks up. And significantly more can be learned examining longer periods of time than a single year – the short time period CBP typically focuses on.

It would not be surprising, for example, to find that adults who are deported from the U.S. who have been separated from established families in the U.S. would be highly motivated to keep trying to get back into the country to be re-united with, and to provide continued support for, their families. Other reasons for persistence likely also exist. For example, adults who grew up in the United States but were deported to Mexico and had no real connections to any other country. But for whatever reason, the persistence of reentry attempts by some is starkly evident in these data.

Table 1A. Title 42 Border Patrol Expulsions by Citizenship, Family Type, and Number of Previous Encounters
Previous Encounters Total Mexico Other Country
UAC* Family-adult Family-child Other Adults** UAC* Family-adult Family-child Other Adults**
All 1,238,066 11,507 8,504 10,258 681,918 4,093 58,283 59,993 403,510
0 505,172 5,341 3,724 8,266 227,813 3,836 41,867 58,685 155,640
1 262,572 2,055 1,720 936 146,196 198 10,602 846 100,019
2 165,920 1,122 1,041 470 99,070 30 3,286 241 60,660
3+ 304,402 2,989 2,019 586 208,839 29 2,528 221 87,191
Percent
0 40.8% 46.4% 43.8% 80.6% 33.4% 93.7% 71.8% 97.8% 38.6%
1 21.2% 17.9% 20.2% 9.1% 21.4% 4.8% 18.2% 1.4% 24.8%
2 13.4% 9.8% 12.2% 4.6% 14.5% 0.7% 5.6% 0.4% 15.0%
3+ 24.6% 26.0% 23.7% 5.7% 30.6% 0.7% 4.3% 0.4% 21.6%
* Unaccompanied child (0-17 years old)
** Husband and wife without any children are not classified as a family, but simply as other adults.
Table 1B. Title 42 Border Patrol Expulsions by Citizenship, Family Type, and Number of Previous Encounters
Previous Encounters Total Mexico Other Country
UAC* Family-adult Family-child Other Adults** UAC* Family-adult Family-child Other Adults**
All 1,238,066 11,507 8,504 10,258 681,918 4,093 58,283 59,993 403,510
0 505,172 5,341 3,724 8,266 227,813 3,836 41,867 58,685 155,640
1 262,572 2,055 1,720 936 146,196 198 10,602 846 100,019
2 165,920 1,122 1,041 470 99,070 30 3,286 241 60,660
3 104,123 672 643 268 65,674 20 1,278 105 35,463
4 65,318 402 444 151 43,170 3 553 44 20,551
5 41,331 297 299 79 28,311 2 270 21 12,052
6 26,877 223 194 30 19,088 1 154 15 7,172
7 17,801 174 111 20 13,129 1 81 8 4,277
8 12,141 149 77 11 9,212 1 59 7 2,625
9 8,514 116 60 8 6,608 0 40 7 1,675
10 6,084 104 43 4 4,817 1 27 4 1,084
11 4,411 85 30 4 3,556 0 17 3 716
12 3,314 76 18 2 2,709 0 13 3 493
13 2,556 57 15 3 2,150 0 11 3 317
14 2,007 56 13 3 1,709 0 7 1 218
15 1,621 54 7 2 1,395 0 4 0 159
16 1,316 48 14 0 1,142 0 3 0 109
17 1,068 42 10 0 942 0 4 0 70
18 891 44 9 0 780 0 3 0 55
19 708 36 9 1 620 0 3 0 39
20 614 33 4 0 543 0 1 0 33
21 522 32 1 0 466 0 0 0 23
22 460 29 2 0 414 0 0 0 15
23 387 25 2 0 351 0 0 0 9
24 335 22 3 0 301 0 0 0 9
25 287 21 2 0 258 0 0 0 6
26 243 19 2 0 218 0 0 0 4
27 202 15 1 0 183 0 0 0 3
28 171 12 1 0 154 0 0 0 4
29 134 12 3 0 116 0 0 0 3
30 126 12 1 0 110 0 0 0 3
31 108 12 0 0 94 0 0 0 2
32 92 12 0 0 79 0 0 0 1
33 88 11 0 0 77 0 0 0 0
34 77 10 0 0 66 0 0 0 1
35 69 11 0 0 58 0 0 0 0
36 50 7 0 0 43 0 0 0 0
37 34 5 0 0 29 0 0 0 0
38 31 4 0 0 27 0 0 0 0
39 29 5 1 0 23 0 0 0 0
40 27 4 0 0 23 0 0 0 0
41 20 4 0 0 16 0 0 0 0
42 19 4 0 0 15 0 0 0 0
43 19 4 0 0 15 0 0 0 0
44 15 3 0 0 12 0 0 0 0
45 18 3 0 0 15 0 0 0 0
46 15 3 0 0 12 0 0 0 0
47 15 3 0 0 12 0 0 0 0
48 10 2 0 0 8 0 0 0 0
49 8 2 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
50 10 2 0 0 8 0 0 0 0
51 7 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
52 7 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
53 7 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
54 8 1 0 0 7 0 0 0 0
55 8 1 0 0 7 0 0 0 0
56 5 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
57 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
58 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
59 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
60 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
61 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
62 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
63 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
64 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
65 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
66 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
67 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
68 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
69 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
70 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
71 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
72 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
73 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
74 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
75 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
76 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
77 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
78 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
79 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
80 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
81 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
* Unaccompanied child (0-17 years old)
** Husband and wife without any children are not classified as a family, but simply as other adults.

Deterrence of Repeat Reentry Attempts

CBP officials and other commentators have pointed to the existence of repeat reentry attempts for Title 42 expulsions as a special case because, unlike normal Title 8 removals, individuals face no real consequences such as criminal prosecution, but are simply expelled almost immediately.

To test CBP’s contention that the repeat reentry attempts were a new problem because individuals deported under Title 42 faced no special consequences, TRAC analyzed the pattern of repeat apprehensions of Title 42 expulsions over time.

At the start of Title 42, individuals who were picked up presumably reflected their prior repeat reentry attempts under the Border Patrol’s normal operations. The extent this changed over time would better isolate whether the lack of criminal prosecutions or other sanctions may have resulted in increasing reentry attempts.

In the first weeks of Title 42 covering March 20-April 30, 2020, 42 percent of apprehensions of individual had no prior record of attempting illegal entry. A total of 22 percent had 3 or more prior apprehensions. Eighteen months later during September 1 - 30, 2021, 48 percent of apprehensions of individuals had no prior record of apprehension, in contrast to 42 percent when the program began. The proportion of apprehensions of individuals with 3 or more prior apprehensions was unchanged at still 22 percent. See Figure 2.

figure2
Figure 2. Title 42 Expulsions: Repeat Illegal Entries of All Individuals Encountered by the Border Patrol from March 20, 2020 - September 30, 2021
figure1
Figure 3. Title 42 Expulsions: Repeat Illegal Entries of Mexican Adults Traveling Alone from March 20, 2020 - September 30, 2021

Because adults traveling without children were more likely to attempt reentry than were children traveling alone or adults with children, we then focused on reentry attempts by adults alone. We further focused in on Mexican adults since these individuals had the highest number of reentry attempts.

We did find a small increase in reentry attempts by Mexican adults traveling alone during this time period. However, the change observed was well within the natural range of month-to-month variation. A total of 35 percent of apprehensions of individuals in the first weeks of Title 42’s implementation had no prior record of attempting illegal entry. Eighteen months later during September 1 – 30, 2021, this had decreased to 34 percent. Likewise, a total of 28 percent had three or more prior encounters at the beginning of the period, and during the last month of this time period it was 31 percent.

Because of the month-to-month variation that was observed, it is difficult to conclude the existence of a significant trend as there may be further composition effects not controlled for. Indeed, the time series plot in Figure 3 for Mexican adults traveling alone displays rates that change very little throughout the period. (For detailed statistics concerning these trends, see Tables 2-4.)

Conclusion

These detailed government records document that reentry attempts persist among a large proportion of noncitizens apprehended by the Border Patrol. Despite rearrests again and again, reentry attempts continue. The Trump administration instituted many initiatives to stop individuals from illegally entering the country along our southwest border with Mexico. Despite these initiatives, these records show little evidence that apprehensions reduced reentry attempts. Persistent illegal reentry attempts continued into the Biden administration particularly among adults traveling alone.

With the range of complex push and pull factors that cause individuals to leave their home country and seek to come to this country, it is unclear whether aggressive enforcement efforts and sanctions alone will ever be successful in stopping these migration flows. It is clear, however, that without better data tracking individuals and their characteristics, rather than merely counting enforcement events, we will not have an adequate handle on what border control policies are better and more cost effective in the long run at achieving this country’s goals.

Table 2. All Title 42 Border Patrol Expulsions by Number of Prior Encounters, March 20, 2020 - September 30, 2021
Previous Encounters Year and Month of Border Patrol Apprehension
2020-04* 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 All
All 22,112 20,084 28,534 35,444 42,808 48,389 63,018 61,354 60,620 62,545 72,335 107,278 110,869 111,542 103,096 94,264 93,158 100,616 1,238,066
0 9,385 7,020 11,008 13,924 16,892 20,045 26,211 23,439 21,331 23,118 28,970 48,092 47,755 41,869 38,534 37,057 42,017 48,505 505,172
1 4,870 4,307 6,227 7,853 9,532 10,584 14,193 14,135 13,832 13,500 15,638 21,386 23,180 24,536 22,222 19,890 18,227 18,460 262,572
2 3,006 2,889 3,954 4,898 5,908 6,582 8,574 8,990 9,168 8,910 9,769 13,302 14,290 15,750 14,436 12,808 11,360 11,326 165,920
3 1,727 1,865 2,389 3,045 3,658 3,983 5,092 5,331 5,902 5,886 6,186 8,223 8,731 10,087 9,463 8,076 7,210 7,269 104,123
4 978 1,204 1,568 1,931 2,231 2,421 3,075 3,210 3,579 3,724 3,780 5,259 5,481 6,324 5,961 5,294 4,550 4,748 65,318
5 646 789 999 1,155 1,371 1,451 1,861 1,960 2,166 2,349 2,459 3,466 3,418 4,022 3,800 3,376 2,892 3,151 41,331
6 409 543 691 741 871 985 1,137 1,241 1,320 1,539 1,588 2,162 2,282 2,586 2,557 2,250 1,963 2,012 26,877
7 275 385 481 483 603 600 759 837 826 979 1,046 1,377 1,567 1,743 1,689 1,489 1,326 1,336 17,801
8 204 250 290 334 415 415 512 568 583 639 734 976 1,063 1,192 1,137 1,019 915 895 12,141
9 126 172 215 220 302 297 366 367 439 461 540 692 734 805 783 722 630 643 8,514
10 82 118 141 164 212 196 266 287 323 289 366 538 532 560 579 502 456 473 6,084
11 56 80 107 126 148 165 187 204 235 221 278 373 357 439 436 373 304 322 4,411
12 41 59 86 99 107 116 143 156 187 183 189 289 253 334 300 293 229 250 3,314
13 36 63 47 70 82 85 113 106 148 144 148 223 218 265 214 216 181 197 2,556
14 42 57 48 50 67 51 86 97 104 118 105 170 169 193 170 167 143 170 2,007
15 35 51 49 53 66 51 46 68 88 92 98 115 147 144 136 132 114 136 1,621
16 23 35 31 46 48 47 40 58 72 87 82 110 110 120 108 99 91 109 1,316
17 26 29 27 33 40 42 46 29 58 66 55 94 87 96 86 81 90 83 1,068
18 16 22 29 36 33 39 44 29 39 49 60 72 62 74 89 52 82 64 891
19 15 13 17 34 30 36 34 20 34 30 41 56 69 53 66 49 48 63 708
20 18 16 14 22 22 32 35 21 32 20 40 44 56 50 48 43 46 55 614
21 10 14 15 19 23 26 36 24 26 19 24 35 48 42 37 47 29 48 522
22 8 8 9 16 17 23 32 27 19 22 21 40 39 38 40 35 32 34 460
23 12 14 9 12 13 16 13 22 17 13 19 35 31 37 36 22 31 35 387
24 9 8 12 10 14 13 13 23 15 12 12 25 34 23 28 26 29 29 335
25 8 9 9 4 14 14 9 16 15 11 18 18 25 22 23 20 25 27 287
26 4 13 8 9 8 7 8 15 13 11 13 20 21 21 18 15 17 22 243
27 5 8 8 7 12 3 9 11 9 10 8 16 12 18 14 17 10 25 202
28 5 5 8 6 11 6 7 7 6 5 10 14 12 14 12 13 10 20 171
29 2 3 4 5 12 6 8 3 4 7 2 8 12 13 15 7 11 12 134
30 0 5 2 5 5 8 6 6 9 4 6 3 18 7 11 11 8 12 126
31 2 4 1 3 6 7 6 6 6 2 9 6 10 9 5 8 9 9 108
32 3 1 3 2 5 6 4 6 3 5 3 7 6 12 4 9 5 8 92
33 2 1 4 7 3 2 8 4 1 0 3 8 9 7 8 9 7 5 88
34 1 1 5 4 6 3 5 4 0 0 1 3 8 9 5 5 7 10 77
35 1 2 5 5 3 4 3 5 1 2 1 1 8 5 4 3 8 8 69
36 3 1 1 2 3 3 1 3 2 1 2 2 3 4 3 4 5 7 50
37 4 1 0 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 4 3 4 6 0 34
38 1 2 2 0 0 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 0 5 1 2 2 3 31
39 1 1 1 2 0 2 3 1 1 2 0 2 0 3 3 3 1 3 29
40 1 1 2 1 2 0 2 2 0 3 1 2 0 1 4 2 1 2 27
41 1 1 0 1 2 0 2 2 0 1 2 1 1 0 2 3 1 0 20
42 3 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 1 5 0 1 19
43 3 0 0 0 1 1 4 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 1 3 19
44 1 2 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 15
45 0 0 2 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 2 18
46 1 0 1 1 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 1 15
47 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 15
48 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 10
49 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 8
50 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 10
51 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 7
52 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 7
53 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 7
54 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 8
55 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 8
56 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 5
57 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3
58 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3
59 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3
60 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3
61 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3
62 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 3
63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
64 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
65 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2
66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2
68 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2
69 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2
70 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2
71 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2
72 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2
73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
76 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
77 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
78 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
79 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
* March 20 - April 30, 2020.
Table 3. Mexican Adults Traveling Without Children: Title 42 Border Patrol Expulsions by Number of Prior Encounters, March 20, 2020 - September 30, 2021
Previous Encounters Year and Month of Border Patrol Apprehension
2020-04* 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 All
All 14,220 15,404 22,287 26,032 29,612 31,085 38,369 36,138 32,369 33,451 36,936 53,468 56,200 60,053 53,795 47,789 44,161 50,549 681,918
0 5,038 4,990 8,038 9,125 10,438 11,421 13,819 12,275 10,286 11,030 11,753 17,227 18,749 19,500 17,160 15,007 14,652 17,305 227,813
1 3,036 3,199 4,918 5,799 6,534 6,841 8,639 7,993 6,994 7,011 7,851 11,207 11,824 12,805 11,342 10,228 9,353 10,622 146,196
2 2,115 2,242 3,188 3,791 4,318 4,539 5,637 5,446 4,898 4,815 5,415 7,794 8,049 8,676 7,772 6,963 6,415 6,997 99,070
3 1,356 1,521 1,951 2,495 2,783 2,833 3,554 3,461 3,333 3,327 3,689 5,203 5,348 5,865 5,336 4,628 4,227 4,764 65,674
4 788 1,003 1,308 1,623 1,764 1,790 2,253 2,261 2,162 2,172 2,403 3,565 3,618 3,861 3,512 3,189 2,727 3,171 43,170
5 559 662 847 976 1,126 1,088 1,391 1,402 1,401 1,448 1,626 2,451 2,358 2,590 2,329 2,144 1,767 2,146 28,311
6 364 461 599 623 732 757 863 917 893 1,039 1,087 1,588 1,642 1,735 1,653 1,465 1,254 1,416 19,088
7 248 340 412 422 505 480 588 629 565 678 774 1,047 1,180 1,216 1,160 1,021 901 963 13,129
8 182 233 243 283 348 343 398 436 410 462 573 761 814 898 790 717 648 673 9,212
9 110 157 186 189 249 242 295 290 313 327 421 567 576 635 568 519 467 497 6,608
10 74 111 119 137 177 146 211 229 244 215 283 446 425 452 448 380 337 383 4,817
11 51 74 89 107 123 127 147 164 179 170 224 303 290 365 356 288 240 259 3,556
12 40 53 74 81 89 93 110 132 136 146 149 243 211 276 251 230 181 214 2,709
13 36 58 42 55 67 68 89 89 112 116 125 191 187 227 188 176 150 174 2,150
14 40 50 44 38 53 38 66 78 74 94 92 156 149 169 152 145 122 149 1,709
15 33 47 43 43 54 37 35 53 62 74 87 107 131 128 124 117 102 118 1,395
16 19 33 26 36 37 35 33 44 53 72 70 104 99 106 102 86 85 102 1,142
17 22 27 20 29 28 33 35 26 44 55 46 88 80 91 81 76 84 77 942
18 14 21 23 31 22 28 32 24 25 44 52 66 57 72 85 47 77 60 780
19 12 13 12 31 20 25 26 16 21 26 36 54 61 51 62 47 46 61 620
20 17 15 12 18 18 22 23 20 22 17 33 43 53 47 46 41 44 52 543
21 8 13 14 16 18 18 25 21 22 14 21 34 45 41 35 46 29 46 466
22 3 7 9 12 14 16 24 24 15 18 18 40 37 38 39 35 31 34 414
23 7 12 9 9 9 12 10 17 16 9 17 35 31 35 36 22 30 35 351
24 6 7 9 9 10 9 12 17 14 8 12 24 32 20 28 26 29 29 301
25 5 8 7 3 11 11 6 11 14 6 18 18 25 20 23 20 25 27 258
26 3 10 4 8 5 3 7 12 13 8 13 20 20 20 18 15 17 22 218
27 5 5 7 5 8 0 8 9 9 8 8 16 12 17 14 17 10 25 183
28 4 3 7 5 8 2 6 7 6 5 8 14 12 13 11 13 10 20 154
29 2 2 1 4 8 3 6 2 4 7 0 8 12 12 15 7 11 12 116
30 0 3 2 3 3 5 3 6 8 4 4 3 17 7 11 11 8 12 110
31 2 2 1 2 4 3 4 5 6 2 7 6 10 9 5 8 9 9 94
32 2 1 1 2 3 4 1 4 3 4 3 7 6 12 4 9 5 8 79
33 1 1 3 6 3 0 3 3 1 0 3 8 9 7 8 9 7 5 77
34 1 1 3 3 6 1 1 3 0 0 1 3 8 9 5 5 7 9 66
35 1 2 3 3 3 2 0 3 1 2 1 1 8 5 4 3 8 8 58
36 3 1 0 2 2 1 0 1 2 1 2 2 3 4 3 4 5 7 43
37 3 1 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 4 3 4 6 0 29
38 0 2 2 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 5 1 2 2 3 27
39 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 0 1 2 0 2 0 3 3 3 1 3 23
40 1 0 2 1 2 0 0 1 0 3 1 2 0 1 4 2 1 2 23
41 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 2 3 1 0 16
42 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 1 5 0 1 15
43 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 1 3 15
44 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 12
45 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 2 15
46 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 1 12
47 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 12
48 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 8
49 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 6
50 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 8
51 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 6
52 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 6
53 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 6
54 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 7
55 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 7
56 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 4
57 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3
58 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3
59 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3
60 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3
61 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3
62 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 3
63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
64 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
65 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2
66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2
68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
76 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
77 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
78 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
79 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
* March 20 - April 30, 2020.
Table 4. Comparison of Apprehensions of All Individuals versus Mexican Adults Traveling Without Children: Title 42 Border Patrol Expulsions by Number of Prior Encounters, March 20, 2020 - September 30, 2021
Previous Encounters Year and Month of Border Patrol Apprehension
2020-04* 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09
All Border Patrol Apprehensions
No Previous Encounter 42% 35% 39% 39% 39% 41% 42% 38% 35% 37% 40% 45% 43% 38% 37% 39% 45% 48%
1 Previous Encounter 22% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23% 22% 22% 20% 21% 22% 22% 21% 20% 18%
2 Previous Encounters 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 15% 15% 14% 14% 12% 13% 14% 14% 14% 12% 11%
3+ Previous Encounters 22% 29% 26% 25% 24% 23% 22% 24% 27% 27% 25% 23% 23% 26% 27% 26% 23% 22%
Mexican Adults Traveling Without Children Border Patrol Apprehensions
No Previous Encounter 35% 32% 36% 35% 35% 37% 36% 34% 32% 33% 32% 32% 33% 32% 32% 31% 33% 34%
1 Previous Encounter 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 22% 22% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21%
2 Previous Encounters 15% 15% 14% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 15% 15% 14%
3+ Previous Encounters 28% 32% 28% 28% 28% 27% 27% 29% 31% 32% 32% 32% 31% 32% 33% 33% 31% 31%
* March 20 - April 30, 2020.
Footnotes
[1]^ On March 20, 2020, the Trump administration invoked special border control procedures allegedly tied to public health concerns associated with the pandemic. Most individuals without valid authorization were not allowed to enter the country and were immediately expelled under Section 265 of Title 42 of the United States Code.
[2]^ It is important to emphasize that percentages in this report are for the proportion of apprehensions of individuals with prior encounters, not the proportion of individuals with prior encounters. While it is exciting that the data Customs and Border Protection released examined prior encounters of those apprehended – an ambitious undertaking to match the records of individuals going back over the last twenty years – the agency still withheld information that would allow calculating the actual number of individuals involved. Because an individual with multiple prior illegal entry arrests, perhaps over the space of months, may potentially show up in these data as multiple apprehensions, rates based on apprehensions will generally show higher rates of prior encounters than would rates based on individuals to the extent prior encounters take place during the same examined time period. For monthly rates, an individual’s record would show up more than once only if they were rearrested within the same calendar month.
[3]^ Border Patrol’s recidivism definition and data can be found at: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics.
[4]^ See Table 3 in GAO-17-66.
[5]^ While apprehension-by-apprehension data was provided, CBP did not provide a mechanism to identify which apprehensions were of the same individual. Without that, one cannot directly determine how many individuals were involved. Because each apprehension is being counted, an individual who was rearrested three times in the same year would appear three times. Thus, the proportion of apprehensions of individuals who were previously encountered would be expected to be higher than the proportion of individuals who had been previously apprehended for illegal entry. What was released and is available to the public on TRAC’s free web query tool, is for each apprehension how many previous encounters CBP’s database records for that individual along with the date of the most recent apprehension. Since previous encounters were assessed over a twenty year period and the dates of each of these was not released, estimation of individual recidivism rates was not feasible. While CBP has long contended that it was unable to match apprehensions to identify previous apprehensions for that individual, this indeed turned out to be feasible. CBP was apparently able to conduct this matching exercise over twenty years of past records. Unfortunately, the records were not released in a manner that allowed apprehensions for the same individual to be associated.
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