Importance of Nationality in Immigration Court Bond Decisions

The chances of being granted bond at hearings before immigration judges vary markedly by nationality, as do required bond amounts. These differences among nationality groups are striking and are the focus of this report. Currently more than three out of every four individuals from India or Nepal, for example, were granted bond, while only between 11 and 15 percent of immigrants from Cuba received a favorable ruling. And those from China were less likely to receive a favorable ruling than are those from India or Nepal. See Figure 1.

The required bond amount also varies widely by nationality. For example, the median bond for immigrants from the Philippines was just $4,000, while those from Bangladesh were required to post $10,000-$12,000.

Even for immigrants of the same nationality, experiences can differ depending upon their hearing location[1]. Because both nationality as well as court hearing location appear to influence bond outcomes, disentangling their interconnections can be challenging[2]. To illustrate this complex interplay, the report examines in more detail the impact of bond hearing location for immigrants from Mexico versus those from India.

Findings in this report are based on a detailed analysis of court records covering all of FY 2018 and the first two months of FY 2019 by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University. The bond hearing-by-bond hearing records were obtained by TRAC under the Freedom of Information Act from the Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR).

A brand new free web query tool released with this report allows the public for the first time to examine in detail the bond experience by hearing location for any nationality. The new app covers outcomes in Immigration Court bond hearings as well as subsequent case dispositions after detained immigrants are granted bond. Data now available cover the period October 2000 through November 2018.

Nationalities Seeking Bond Hearings

Nationally, currently less than half of detained immigrants with bond hearings were granted bond - 48 percent during FY 2018, and 43 percent thus far during FY 2019. The median bond amount was $7,500 in FY 2018, and rose to $8,000 during the first two months of FY 2019.

These overall results, however, conceal substantial variability. Detained immigrants' backgrounds should, of course, be expected to be related to bond hearing outcomes. And there is much diversity in those seeking to be released on bond.

A total of 190 different nationalities sought bond hearings during FY 2018. Not surprisingly, bond seekers from Mexico continue to outnumber any other nationality by wide margins. However, their proportion has dropped from 56 percent during FY 2012 to 37 percent during the first two months of FY 2019.

The second largest group with bond hearings were individuals from Guatemala. For the last decade their numbers have been steadily rising year-by-year.

In third place were detained immigrants from India seeking bond hearings. Their numbers suddenly surged in FY 2018, with a three-fold increase over FY 2017. This unexpected jump may reflect the sharp change in enforcement and detention strategies of the current Trump administration which is targeting increasing numbers of long-time residents, including those who have overstayed their visas rather than entered illegally.

Currently, individuals from Honduras and El Salvador are the fourth and fifth largest nationality groups, respectively, seeking bond hearings before immigrations judges. Formerly in second place, numbers from El Salvador have been declining since FY 2015. In contrast, those from Honduras have been growing.

Bond Outcomes by Nationality

As noted above, the current likelihood of being granted bond varies by nationality from almost nine out of ten down to only one in ten who are granted bond. More striking still is that nationalities with particularly high odds of being granted bond, also tend to have higher required bond amounts. And those with especially low chances of success at bond hearings also had lower required bonds for those who were granted bond. This is shown in the scatterplot in Figure 2 where median bond amounts are plotted against the percentage granted bond for each of the 38 nationalities that had at least 100 bond hearings during FY 2018.

Detained immigrants from India had the highest odds of being granted bond - 87 percent during FY 2018, and 73 percent so far during FY 2019. However, they also had the highest required median bond amounts -- $17,000 in FY 2018 and $20,000 in FY 2019. (This nationality group appears as the plotted symbol in the upper right corner of Figure 2.) Similarly, detained immigrants from Nepal, China, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh typically also had high required bond amounts, combined with higher odds of being granted bond. They also can be seen as plotted symbols, but slightly lower and to the left of India's. Table 1 at the end of the report gives the exact values being plotted for each nationality.

At the other extreme, detained immigrants from Cuba, Liberia and the Philippines were the three nationalities with the lowest chance of being granted bond, yet also among the lowest required bond amounts when bond was granted - just $4,000 to $5,000. The plotted symbols for these nationalities appear in the lower left hand corner of Figure 2.

However, as shown in Figure 2, this relationship appeared to hold true only at the extremes. The majority of nationalities had bond amounts that varied very little - typically in the $7,000-$7,500 range - even though their odds of being granted bond varied widely between roughly 30 and 70 percent.

Contrasting Outcomes by Court Location: Immigrants from Mexico versus India

Despite these pronounced differences in bond outcomes by nationality, at the same time wide variation among hearing locations often continues to exist within the same nationality[3]. Restricting comparisons to hearing locations that conducted at least 100 bond hearings for those from Mexico, the odds of prevailing varied from 26 percent to 68 percent, while the median required bond amount ranged from $3,500 all the way up to $12,000.

These ranges clearly overlap bond outcomes for the same set of hearing locations for detained immigrants from India. For these individuals, the odds of prevailing went as low as 17 percent at one location, with just $4,500 as the required bond[4]. Thus, for some locations, results for individuals from India could be less favorable than those awarded Mexicans at other locations. See Table 2 below.

The influence of both nationality and location is clearly evident when hearing location outcomes for these two nationalities are plotted on the same graph. See Figure 3. Again, this scatterplot displays the odds of being granted bond (on the horizontal axis) against the median required bond amount for those granted bond (on the vertical axis). Outcomes for individuals from Mexico are shown as dark blue triangles, while results obtained by detained immigrants from India are plotted as orange circles. Each triangle or circle represents the outcome at a particular hearing location.

If there was little variation among hearing locations when we controlled for nationality, then plotting symbols of the same color would be closely bunched together. Instead they are quite scattered. If nationalities always had different outcomes once we controlled for the hearing location, then the two colored clouds of points should appear as distinctly different clouds. We see, however, that the two sets of colored plotting symbols overlap one another. Nonetheless, we also see a distinctly different pattern for the two nationality groups with the orange circles tending to appear in a cloud in the upper right quadrant of the plot. This indicates that there are many more hearing locations for individuals from India where the odds of being granted bond as well as the required bond amount are significantly higher than is the case for immigrants from Mexico. Clearly, both nationality and hearing location each play significant roles in influencing bond outcomes here.

Brand New Bond Outcomes App

Given the increased public discussion over who ICE should detain and how long they should remain detained, TRAC has developed a new web query bond outcomes tool. The tool allows users to drill in to examine, month-by-month, state-by-state, hearing location-by-hearing location, outcomes at Immigration Court bond hearings and how these may differ by nationality, as well as by whether the detained immigrant had representation.

In addition, for the first time, users can see what happens after bond is granted. The app allows users to follow the same individuals by easily switching views between bond hearing outcomes and the subsequent outcome of the deportation case. Does the court order them removed, or are they found to be entitled to remain in the U.S.? Just how many who were granted bond remain detained, presumably because they are unable to post the required bond? For those released on bond, the app allows users to drill in and see how many appear versus fail to appear at their subsequent hearing on their deportation case.

Table 1. Immigration Court Bond Hearing Outcomes by Nationality, Oct. 2017 - Nov. 2018

	FY 2018			FY 2019 (Oct-Nov)
Nationality*	Bond Hearings	Percent Granted	Median $ Bond	Bond Hearings	Percent Granted	Median $ Bond
All	74,594	48%	7,500	8,458	43%	8,000
Mexico	31,048	44%	6,500	3,144	38%	7,000
Guatemala	9,261	45%	7,500	1,016	38%	7,500
India	6,334	87%	17,000	894	73%	20,000
Honduras	6,246	44%	7,500	761	39%	7,500
El Salvador	5,822	44%	7,500	619	39%	7,500
China	1,100	60%	15,000	134	59%	15,000
Ecuador	988	52%	7,500	124	41%	8,000
Brazil	763	52%	7,500	71	45%	10,000
Cuba	721	11%	5,000	88	15%	5,000
Dominican Republic	712	29%	7,000	76	28%	10,000
Nicaragua	655	52%	7,500	267	50%	10,000
Nepal	593	79%	15,000	100	74%	15,000
Jamaica	564	39%	5,000	75	24%	4,750
Haiti	521	33%	7,500	24	25%	4,000
Bangladesh	488	84%	10,000	129	78%	12,000
Nigeria	460	57%	7,500	46	48%	6,500
Colombia	453	42%	6,000	52	29%	8,000
Peru	362	46%	7,500	38	37%	8,750
Iraq	312	48%	7,500	8	-	-
Venezuela	308	56%	6,250	35	54%	8,000
Pakistan	261	57%	12,500	25	56%	17,750
Romania	220	43%	10,000	27	41%	10,000
Somalia	175	26%	9,000	16	13%	11,250
Vietnam	161	41%	9,000	17	41%	15,500
Russia	157	39%	7,500	12	25%	7,500
Cameroon	147	42%	6,000	9	-	-
Eritrea	147	37%	5,000	12	25%	1,500
Turkey	140	68%	7,500	10	70%	2,500
Ghana	137	58%	7,000	14	57%	6,500
Jordan	136	53%	7,250	14	43%	6,250
Philippines	130	25%	4,000	23	30%	4,000
Ukraine	118	35%	8,000	14	64%	9,000
Sri Lanka	114	68%	10,000	41	56%	15,000
Kenya	113	41%	7,000	14	43%	5,750
Liberia	105	23%	5,000	15	27%	9,000
Poland	102	52%	7,000	13	31%	4,000

* Nationalities with 100 or more Immigration Court bond hearings in FY 2018, and corresponding numbers for the first two months of FY 2019. FY 2019 bond outcomes not reported where <10 hearings conducted.

Table 2. Contrasting Bond Outcomes by Immigration Court Hearing Location for Two Nationalities, Oct. 2017 - Nov. 2018

		From Mexico			From India
State*	Hearing Location**	Bond Hearings	Percent Granted	Median $ Bond	Bond Hearings	Percent Granted	Median $ Bond
All		34,192	43%	6,500	7,228	85%	17,500
California	Adelanto Detention Facility West	1,774	37%	7,000	1,879	92%	20,000
Washington	Northwest Detention Center	1,651	29%	10,000	974	96%	20,000
Arizona	Eloy INS Detention Center	2,093	40%	8,000	327	67%	17,500
California	Los Angeles 3	1,433	29%	6,000	578	96%	15,000
Illinois	Chicago Detained	1,853	52%	5,000	81	84%	6,500
Colorado	Aurora Immigration Court	1,450	40%	5,000	357	97%	5,000
Texas	Pearsall, Texas - Detention Facilit	1,716	53%	7,500	88	95%	9,750
Georgia	Stewart Detention Center - Lumpkin	1,454	51%	7,500	57	54%	30,000
Louisiana	Lasalle Detention Facility	1,413	30%	8,000	71	32%	12,000
Michigan	Detroit Detainees	1,245	51%	5,000	23	52%	8,000
California	Otay Mesa Detention Center	1,022	51%	4,000	151	87%	15,000
Louisiana	DHS-Litigation Unit/Oakdale	876	32%	7,500	261	90%	15,000
Texas	Polk County Detention Facility	1,027	40%	7,500	53	77%	10,000
Texas	Joe Corley Detention Facility	1,013	31%	7,500	32	28%	10,000
California	Imperial Detained	106	35%	3,500	849	90%	15,000
Pennsylvania	York County Prison	925	54%	6,500	27	56%	6,000
Georgia	Atlanta Detained Location	834	52%	10,000	40	23%	12,000
Arizona	Florence, Arizona	507	62%	7,000	330	90%	25,000
Texas	Johnson County Jail	713	53%	7,500	1	-	-
Minnesota	Bloomington Detained	701	42%	5,000	7	-	-
California	San Francisco Detained	602	32%	4,000	35	74%	7,500
Missouri	Kansas City Immigration Court - Det	626	44%	5,000	7	-	-
Texas	Port Isabel Service Processing Cent	596	40%	7,500	28	86%	22,500
Florida	Krome North Service Processing Cent	608	47%	5,000	13	69%	10,000
Nebraska	Omaha Immigration Court - Detained	597	46%	5,000	3	-	-
New Mexico	Otero County Processing Center	387	65%	5,000	130	48%	20,000
Nevada	Las Vegas, Nevada	513	66%	5,000	3	-	-
New Jersey	Essex County Jail	435	47%	7,000	18	39%	5,000
Nevada	Pahrump	404	58%	5,000	19	79%	7,500
New York	New York Service Processing Center	375	36%	6,000	19	58%	7,000
California	San Francisco Video	353	41%	5,000	40	48%	8,000
Georgia	Atlanta Immigration Court	64	50%	10,000	327	53%	25,000
Florida	Broward Transitional Center	373	40%	7,500	14	36%	20,000
Texas	Prairieland Detention Center	356	33%	7,500	9	-	-
New York	Batavia Service Processing Center	221	26%	10,000	84	73%	10,000
Texas	Houston Service Processing Center	270	26%	9,000	27	41%	10,000
California	Adelanto Detention Facility East	269	45%	5,000	18	78%	15,000
Texas	David L. Moss Criminal Justice Cent	282	34%	10,000	3	-	-
Florida	Glades County Prison	266	30%	5,000	3	-	-
Florida	Immigration Court	263	30%	5,000	1	-	-
Texas	El Paso Service Processing Center	199	59%	4,000	64	94%	15,000
Ohio	Butler County Sheriff's Office	241	41%	10,000	3	-	-
Ohio	Cleveland Detained Location	217	52%	7,250	7	-	-
Virginia	Arlington Detained Location	209	48%	7,500	7	-	-
Texas	Houston Female Detained	194	49%	8,000	1	-	-
New Jersey	Elizabeth Detention Center	181	46%	10,000	12	17%	4,500
Ohio	Northeast Ohio Correctional Center	105	68%	7,500	53	94%	10,000
Maryland	Baltimore, Maryland	145	57%	12,500	7	-	-
Massachusetts	Boston Detained	134	72%	5,000	10	60%	6,250
Texas	Patrick E. Moore Detention Center	102	26%	7,500	3	-	-

* State where Immigrant Court based.
** Hearing locations with 100 or more Immigration Court bond hearings for Mexicans during October 2017 - November 2018, and corresponding numbers for immigrants from India. Bond outcomes not reported where <10 hearings conducted.