Continued Rise in Asylum Denial Rates:
Impact of Representation and Nationality

Denials of asylum by immigration judges continued to rise last year. As of the end of September 2016, overall asylum denial rates for FY 2016 had risen to 57 percent. See Figure 1. The number of asylum cases decided last year also increased nearly twenty percent to 22,186 cases, up from 18,581 cases decided in FY 2015. Details are shown in Table 1.


Figure 1. Asylum Denial Rates in Immigration Court by Fiscal Year

This is the second to a two-part series examining this recent data. The first report examined how asylum outcome increasingly depended on the judge assigned the case. This report examines trends in filing asylum applications, and how outcomes differed by whether asylum seekers were represented and by the countries they were from[1].

These latest Immigration Court numbers are based on case-by-case records on each asylum decision that were obtained and analyzed by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University. These court records were provided by the Department of Justice's Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR) as a result of a series of Freedom of Information Act requests by TRAC.

The Impact of Representation

An increasing number of asylum seekers are attempting to navigate the Immigration Court system without representation. In FY 2007 some 3,721 individuals without representation had their asylum applications decided. They represented 13 percent of asylum cases that year. By FY 2016, the proportion whose asylum cases were decided without the benefit of representation had grown to 20 percent and affected 4,515 individuals[2].

The evidence also shows that having an attorney continued to be almost a necessity for winning asylum in Immigration Court. Not only is the complexity of applying daunting for many, unrepresented individuals who do manage to file a claim are largely unsuccessful.

In fact, in FY 2016 immigration judges denied these 4,515 unrepresented asylum seekers' claims 90 percent of the time. In contrast, if represented, the odds of denial last year was 48 percent. Or stated another way, more than five out of every ten represented asylum seekers were successful as compared with only one out of every ten who were unrepresented. This translates to a success rate that was five times higher when you had an attorney.


Figure 2. Asylum Denial Rates in Immigration Court by Representation Status

Figure 2 shows contrasting trends for represented versus unrepresented asylum seekers in Immigration Court. Currently four out of every five asylum seekers were represented. The trends shown for those with an attorney parallel those shown earlier in Figure 1.

The outcomes for unrepresented asylum seekers differ not only in their much higher denial rates, but also in the trends shown. For unrepresented, there has been a steady upward march in their denial rates from 73 percent in FY 2001 to 90 percent by FY 2011. Since then their denial rates have varied only slightly from year to year. Details are shown in Table 2.

Thus, for much of this period the gap between denial rates for represented versus unrepresented asylum seekers grew. This increase was despite efforts such as through the Legal Orientation Program (LOP) established in 2003 to provide legal information regarding Immigration Court procedures and available forms of relief.

Asylum Seekers from Different Countries

The countries asylum seekers were from has also shifted. TRAC compared the most recent six years (FY 2011 - FY 2016) with the previous six years (FY 2005 - FY 2010) for nationalities that had one thousand or more asylum seekers during either period. While the number of asylum decisions declined by 18 percent nationally, asylum seekers from some countries have dramatically increased.

Five countries in particular, as shown in Figure 3, showed a surge in those seeking asylum. Mexico topped the list with a 408 percent increase in asylum seekers, followed by Honduras with a 166 percent increase, and Eritrea with a 101 percent growth. Other countries showing an increase of over fifty percent in asylum cases decided by the Immigration Courts during the last six years were Nepal and Somalia.

At the other extreme, Haiti had the largest drop in asylum cases. That country's numbers fell 89 percent. Showing a similar trend, was Colombia (down 87%) and Indonesia (down 81%). Details are shown in Table 3.


Figure 3. Percent Change in Immigration Court Asylum Cases (FY 2005-FY 2010) vs. (FY 2011-FY2016)

There was also wide variation in asylum grant and denial rates depending upon the nationality of the asylum seeker. Table 4 presents nationality-by-nationality asylum denial rates and percentage that had representation. The denial rates for the top ten nationalities are shown in Figure 4.


Figure 4. Asylum Denial Rates for Top Ten Nationalities, FY 2011 - FY 2016

Among the ten nationalities that had the largest number of Immigration Court asylum cases decided during FY 2011 - FY 2016, Mexico had the highest denial rate with nine out of ten (89.6%) turned down. The three Central American countries that have had large numbers arriving seeking asylum also had very high denial rates - El Salvador (82.9%), Honduras (80.3%), and Guatemala (77.2%).

Somalia also had over a fifty percent (54.7%) denial rate. While asylum seekers from Ethiopia and Eritrea were the most successful among the top ten nationalities with denial rates of only 16.5 percent and 17.5 percent, respectively.

Expanding the comparisons to all countries that had at least 10 asylum seekers, Jamaica had the highest denial rate (92.8%), while the Soviet Union had the lowest denial rate (10.0%).


Footnotes

[1] This is based upon the outcome, representation status and recorded nationality for asylum seekers in the Immigration Court's records.

[2] These cover asylum decisions decided by immigration judges. While there are a large number of cases involving unaccompanied children before immigration judges, the actual decisions on whether to grant asylum or other relief is often decided by other parties. Where this happens, such asylum decisions are not part of the data examined here.


Tables

Table 1. Immigration Court Decisions to Grant or Deny Asylum
  Number Percent
Fiscal Year Total Granted* Denied Total Granted Denied
1996 30,341 5,146 25,195 100.0% 17.0% 83.0%
1997 28,306 6,578 21,728 100.0% 23.2% 76.8%
1998 27,523 7,307 20,216 100.0% 26.5% 73.5%
1999 26,577 8,417 18,160 100.0% 31.7% 68.3%
2000 25,261 9,233 16,028 100.0% 36.6% 63.4%
2001 25,036 10,006 15,030 100.0% 40.0% 60.0%
2002 29,357 10,978 18,379 100.0% 37.4% 62.6%
2003 35,781 13,382 22,399 100.0% 37.4% 62.6%
2004 33,895 13,025 20,870 100.0% 38.4% 61.6%
2005 30,742 11,711 19,031 100.0% 38.1% 61.9%
2006 29,779 13,300 16,479 100.0% 44.7% 55.3%
2007 27,732 12,854 14,878 100.0% 46.4% 53.6%
2008 24,068 10,887 13,181 100.0% 45.2% 54.8%
2009 21,604 10,272 11,332 100.0% 47.5% 52.5%
2010 19,448 9,876 9,572 100.0% 50.8% 49.2%
2011 22,044 11,492 10,552 100.0% 52.1% 47.9%
2012 21,532 11,959 9,573 100.0% 55.5% 44.5%
2013 20,946 11,051 9,895 100.0% 52.8% 47.2%
2014 19,778 9,684 10,094 100.0% 49.0% 51.0%
2015 18,581 9,027 9,554 100.0% 48.6% 51.4%
2016 22,186 9,627 12,559 100.0% 43.4% 56.6%
* includes conditional grants of asylum.
Table 2. Representation and Immigration Court Decisions to Grant or Deny Asylum
  No Attorney With Attorney
Fiscal Year Total Denied Percent Denied Total Denied Percent Denied
1996 16,899 15,530 91.9% 13,442 9,665 71.9%
1997 14,202 12,481 87.9% 14,104 9,247 65.6%
1998 13,621 11,821 86.8% 13,902 8,395 60.4%
1999 10,532 8,658 82.2% 16,045 9,502 59.2%
2000 8,195 6,373 77.8% 17,066 9,655 56.6%
2001 7,002 5,122 73.2% 18,034 9,908 54.9%
2002 7,562 5,798 76.7% 21,795 12,581 57.7%
2003 8,406 6,485 77.1% 27,375 15,914 58.1%
2004 7,745 6,106 78.8% 26,150 14,764 56.5%
2005 6,253 5,096 81.5% 24,489 13,935 56.9%
2006 4,647 3,800 81.8% 25,132 12,679 50.4%
2007 3,721 3,181 85.5% 24,011 11,697 48.7%
2008 3,447 3,001 87.1% 20,621 10,180 49.4%
2009 3,251 2,833 87.1% 18,353 8,499 46.3%
2010 3,127 2,714 86.8% 16,321 6,858 42.0%
2011 3,644 3,273 89.8% 18,400 7,279 39.6%
2012 3,311 2,999 90.6% 18,221 6,574 36.1%
2013 3,614 3,330 92.1% 17,332 6,565 37.9%
2014 4,453 4,113 92.4% 15,325 5,981 39.0%
2015 3,891 3,502 90.0% 14,690 6,052 41.2%
2016 4,515 4,065 90.0% 17,671 8,494 48.1%
Table 3. Changing Composition of Asylum Seekers
  Asylum Decisions
Nationality* FY2005-2010 FY2011-FY2016 % Change
All 153,356 125,066 -18%
Mexico 2,369 12,028 408%
Honduras 2,766 7,350 166%
Eritrea 961 1,928 101%
Nepal 1,410 2,812 99%
Somalia 1,137 1,919 69%
El Salvador 7,869 11,546 47%
Guatemala 7,348 8,540 16%
Bangladesh 937 1,002 7%
Egypt 1,629 1,708 5%
China 33,622 33,944 1%
Soviet Union 1,326 1,332 0%
India 3,934 3,660 -7%
Ethiopia 2,945 2,671 -9%
Russia 1,944 1,360 -30%
Iran 1,034 677 -35%
Pakistan 1,955 1,208 -38%
Cameroon 2,181 1,196 -45%
Ivory Coast (Cote D'Ivoire) 1,127 560 -50%
Guinea 2,482 1,026 -59%
Iraq 1,940 724 -63%
Peru 1,062 385 -64%
Armenia 2,219 696 -69%
Venezuela 3,868 1,098 -72%
Yugoslavia 1,134 286 -75%
Mauritania 1,715 416 -76%
Albania 3,748 864 -77%
Indonesia 5,414 1,039 -81%
Colombia 10,632 1,371 -87%
Haiti 14,693 1,599 -89%
* Included are nationalities with at least 1,000 Immigration Court asylum cases decided in either or both periods.
Table 4. Asylum Denial Rates by Nationality, FY 2011 - FY 2016
Nationality* Number Percent Denied Percent Without Attorney
All 125,066 49.8 18.7
China 33,944 21.8 4.4
Mexico 12,028 89.6 40.0
El Salvador 11,546 82.9 30.8
Guatemala 8,540 77.2 25.1
Honduras 7,350 80.3 35.6
India 3,660 45.5 11.7
Nepal 2,812 27.3 6.3
Ethiopia 2,671 16.5 8.6
Eritrea 1,928 17.5 11.1
Somalia 1,919 54.7 45.0
Egypt 1,708 11.7 7.4
Haiti 1,599 80.1 26.8
Colombia 1,371 55.9 15.4
Russia 1,360 31.2 11.7
Soviet Union 1,332 10.0 4.1
Pakistan 1,208 37.1 10.9
Cameroon 1,196 24.2 11.3
Venezuela 1,098 46.4 9.8
Indonesia 1,039 56.4 9.6
Guinea 1,026 36.3 13.6
Bangladesh 1,002 53.4 14.8
Albania 864 28.8 6.0
Nigeria 783 60.5 31.9
Sri Lanka 738 32.0 8.9
Jamaica 737 92.8 52.0
Iraq 724 35.9 14.5
Kenya 700 54.0 22.4
Armenia 696 37.5 11.4
Iran 677 31.6 16.0
Ukraine 627 47.0 19.1
Ecuador 620 71.1 20.8
Nicaragua 620 79.8 37.4
Moldavia (Moldova) 601 32.9 11.0
Gambia 579 32.3 10.2
Mali 569 31.1 6.3
Ivory Coast (Cote D'Ivoire) 560 40.2 9.3
Ghana 538 73.0 67.5
Syria 460 22.4 9.8
Burkina Faso 440 21.6 8.6
Mongolia 431 57.1 12.3
Cuba 419 87.1 61.3
Mauritania 416 42.1 9.4
Stateless - Alien Unable To Name a Country 416 21.6 6.3
Uzebekistan 410 34.4 11.0
Dominican Republic 407 87.0 41.0
Peru 385 69.9 19.7
Burma (Myanmar) 346 28.3 11.0
Sudan 344 47.4 32.6
Brazil 332 73.5 24.4
Congo 330 29.4 10.0
Kirghizia (Kyrgyzstan) 307 26.7 6.8
Romania 305 47.9 13.4
Senegal 297 54.5 20.5
Yugoslavia 286 19.9 5.6
Belarus 274 17.2 9.5
Sierra Leone 248 53.6 22.2
Liberia 244 61.1 36.5
Zimbabwe 240 44.6 14.6
Philippines 235 88.5 34.9
Rwanda 231 28.6 15.2
Afghanistan 224 43.3 22.8
Democratic Republic of Congo 217 43.3 18.4
Uganda 208 32.2 11.5
Kosovo 205 23.9 4.9
Kazakhstan 200 30.0 14.5
Vietnam 199 81.9 41.2
Lebanon 179 54.7 17.3
Togo 177 44.1 11.3
Byelorussia (Belarus) 176 13.6 1.7
Burundi 174 32.8 13.2
Yemen 168 40.5 10.1
Jordan 161 63.4 24.2
Turkey 148 56.8 17.6
Georgia 146 34.2 11.6
Bulgaria 129 41.9 13.2
Guyana 129 80.6 38.0
Trinidad and Tobago 104 86.5 35.6
Laos 100 90.0 56.0
Belize 99 83.8 50.5
Fiji 99 58.6 28.3
Tajikistan (Tadzhik) 99 36.4 6.1
Bosnia-Herzegovina 96 80.2 36.5
Niger 89 65.2 24.7
Cambodia 88 67.0 28.4
Chad 85 16.5 7.1
South Korea 85 84.7 25.9
Azerbaijan 84 27.4 10.7
Tanzania 81 58.0 23.5
Germany 79 86.1 41.8
Israel 79 57.0 15.2
Serbia Montenegro 76 44.7 10.5
Bolivia 75 69.3 21.3
Benin 66 40.9 9.1
Angola 62 67.7 27.4
Macedonia 62 53.2 12.9
Morocco 58 65.5 31.0
Saudi Arabia 58 36.2 12.1
South Africa 58 53.4 29.3
Algeria 56 66.1 10.7
Bahamas 55 85.5 50.9
Central African Republic 55 43.6 20.0
Hungary 53 66.0 35.8
Thailand 53 79.2 45.3
Turkmenistan 53 41.5 15.1
Canada 51 62.7 25.5
Djibouti 49 26.5 10.2
Poland 48 79.2 37.5
Zambia 43 69.8 39.5
Lithuania 42 66.7 28.6
Chile 40 82.5 20.0
Greece 40 50.0 22.5
Argentina 39 64.1 25.6
Italy 36 75.0 27.8
Malaysia 36 55.6 25.0
United Kingdom 36 69.4 27.8
Costa Rica 35 85.7 37.1
Croatia 35 51.4 42.9
Latvia 33 54.5 6.1
Libya 30 43.3 13.3
Palestine 30 60.0 16.7
Gabon 29 62.1 24.1
Spain 27 74.1 18.5
Kuwait 26 38.5 3.8
Bhutan 25 32.0 4.0
France 25 76.0 40.0
Singapore 24 54.2 8.3
Panama 23 78.3 47.8
Tunisia 22 54.5 22.7
Zaire 20 40.0 5.0
Malawi 20 60.0 35.0
Taiwan 20 85.0 35.0
South Sudan 20 80.0 80.0
Czech Republic 19 89.5 47.4
Unknown Nationality 18 33.3 22.2
Belgium 17 52.9 35.3
Federated States of Micronesia 17 94.1 94.1
Portugal 17 70.6 29.4
Guinea Bissau 16 56.3 43.8
Estonia 15 66.7 66.7
Netherlands 15 93.3 66.7
Niue 13 30.8 7.7
Dominica 12 91.7 41.7
Japan 12 75.0 41.7
Montenegro 12 50.0 25.0
St. Lucia 12 66.7 33.3
Sweden 11 90.9 27.3
Australia 10 90.0 50.0
Botswana 10 80.0 10.0
Uruguay 10 90.0 30.0
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 10 80.0 50.0
* Includes nationalities with at least 10 asylum decisions.