Asylum Representation Rates Have Fallen Amid Rising Denial Rates

Very recent Immigration Court records reveal that during FY 2017 asylum decisions were up sharply. A total of 30,179 cases were decided by judges last year, a marked increase from 22,312 cases in FY 2016. This is the largest number of asylum cases decided in any one year since FY 2005. While asylum grants increased, denials grew even faster. This pushed the percent who were denied asylum to 61.8 percent. This is the fifth year in a row that denial rates have risen. Five years ago the denial rate was just 44.5 percent. See Figure 1.


Figure 1. Immigration Court Asylum Decisions: All Cases
(Click for larger image)

This report is the second in a two-part series examining this recent data. The first report looked at how asylum outcome increasingly depended on the judge assigned the case. This report analyzes national trends in the number of asylum decisions, and how outcomes differ by nationality and whether asylum seekers were represented[1]. In addition, TRAC has released individual reports on each of 293 immigration judges that compare the asylum decisions each rendered between FY 2012-FY 2017.

These latest Immigration Court numbers are based on case-by-case records obtained through a series of Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University.

More Unrepresented Among Asylum Seekers

The proportion of asylum seekers who are unable to obtain representation has risen markedly. Ten years ago during FY 2007, only 13.6 percent were unrepresented. Five years ago (FY 2012), 15.8 percent were unrepresented. In FY 2017 the unrepresented figure was 20.6 percent. However, the proportion was even higher during FY 2014 when asylum seekers without attorneys suddenly jumped to 23.2 percent. Since then the rate has slowly subsided. However, the proportion of asylum seekers who were unrepresented last year remained significantly higher than levels prior to the 2014 jump. See Figure 2.

These figures reflect in part the inadequacy of the supply of attorneys to keep up with increases in demand which occurred over this period[2]. Recent efforts to increase the availability of attorneys through ramped up pro bono efforts and government-funded programs have sought to increase this supply. However, given the court's backlog, it may take some time before these newly represented cases are decided and the full impact of these programs will be felt.


Figure 2. Percent of Decided Asylum Cases Without Representation
(Click for larger image)

Odds of Gaining Asylum Five Times Higher When Represented

Without representation, the deck is stacked against an asylum seeker. Statistically, only one out of every ten win their case. With representation, nearly half are successful. Figure 3 shows trends in asylum denial rates over the past two decades when just decisions in represented cases are examined.

The number of decisions in represented cases also increased in FY 2017. However, denials again grew faster. This has resulted in a similar rise in denial rates over the past five years as shown earlier in Figure 1, even though only cases with representation are graphed in Figure 3. Detailed statistics for both represented and for unrepresented cases are given in Table 1 at the end of this report.


Figure 3. Immigration Court Asylum Decisions: Cases with Representation
(Click for larger image)

Asylum Seekers Success Varies Markedly by Nationality

China had the largest number of asylum seekers. During the last six years, 31,176 decisions involved asylum seekers from China. Far behind China but in second place was El Salvador with half the number (15,667). Mexico was close behind El Salvador in the number of asylum decisions (14,688), followed by Honduras (11,020) and Guatemala (10,983).

There was also wide variation in asylum grant and denial rates depending upon the nationality of the asylum seeker. Focusing first on just the ten nationalities that had the largest number of Immigration Court asylum cases decided during FY 2012 - FY 2017, Mexico had the highest denial rate with almost nine out of ten (88.0%) turned down. See Figure 4. The three Central American countries that each have had large numbers arriving at U.S. borders seeking asylum also had very high denial rates: El Salvador (79.2%), Honduras (78.1%), and Guatemala (74.7%).

Asylum seekers from Ethiopia were the most successful among the top ten nationalities with denial rates of only 17.0 percent. China was in second place with its 20.3 percent denial rate, followed by Nepal with just one quarter denied (25.1%).


Figure 4. Asylum Denial Rates by Nationality, FY 2012 - FY 2017
(Click for larger image)

Expanding the comparisons to all countries that had at least 25 asylum seekers with cases decided during FY 2012 - FY 2017, Jamaica had the highest denial rate (91.4%), followed closely by Laos (89.9%), the Philippines, (89.7%) and Mexico (88.0%).

At the other extreme, the Soviet Union had the lowest denial rate (9.5%), with Byelorussia and Egypt with almost as low denial rates at 11.1 percent each.

Outcomes by Nationality and Representation Status

Regardless of nationality, representation status still made a big difference between whether asylum was granted or denied. Focusing again on just the ten countries with the largest number of cases decided, Figure 5 contrasts the denial rates for asylum decisions in which the asylum seekers did or didn't have an attorney to represent them. While having an attorney did not guarantee success, denial rates for those without an attorney were uniformly high. Indeed, for the majority of countries nationality had little impact for the unrepresented.

Unrepresented asylum seekers from three countries shown in Figure 4 — Somalia, China, and Ethiopia — had lower rates of denial than might otherwise be expected, and distinctly lower than those that were unrepresented from the other seven countries. An asylum seeker is counted as unrepresented in the court's data if an attorney hasn't formally entered an appearance in the case. While data are unavailable on other forms of assistance, it is possible that asylum seekers from different countries may also differ in their access to informal networks that provide helpful advice even when they aren't officially represented.


Figure 5. Asylum Denial Rates by Nationality and Representation Status, FY 2012 - FY 2017
(Click for larger image)

The number of asylum decisions, and their outcome by representation status, are shown below in Table 2 for all countries that had at least 25 asylum seekers with cases decided during FY 2012 - FY 2017.

Footnotes

[1] These cover asylum decisions decided by immigration judges. While there are a large number of cases involving unaccompanied children before immigration judges, the actual decisions on whether to grant asylum or other relief is often decided by other parties. Where this happens, such asylum decisions are not part of the data examined here.

[2] Even though these figures do not include many cases involving unaccompanied children since decisions to provide relief are usually rendered by other bodies [see note above], evidence shows that the surging number of such children along with mothers with children seeking refuge in this country exceeded the availability of attorneys willing and able to take their cases. See, for example, November 2014 TRAC report.

Table 1. Immigration Court Asylum Decisions by Fiscal Year and Representation Status
Fiscal Year Number of Asylum Decisions Percent Denied Asylum
All Not
Represented		 Represented All Not
Represented		 Represented
1996 30,342 16,909 13,433 83.0% 91.9% 71.9%
1997 28,307 14,222 14,085 76.8% 87.9% 65.5%
1998 27,521 13,644 13,877 73.4% 86.8% 60.3%
1999 26,578 10,556 16,022 68.3% 82.2% 59.2%
2000 25,265 8,225 17,040 63.5% 77.8% 56.5%
2001 25,036 7,025 18,011 60.0% 73.2% 54.9%
2002 29,357 7,579 21,778 62.6% 76.7% 57.7%
2003 35,782 8,447 27,335 62.6% 77.2% 58.1%
2004 33,896 7,786 26,110 61.6% 78.9% 56.4%
2005 30,743 6,289 24,454 61.9% 81.6% 56.8%
2006 29,780 4,683 25,097 55.3% 81.8% 50.4%
2007 27,733 3,767 23,966 53.7% 85.6% 48.6%
2008 24,067 3,501 20,566 54.8% 87.1% 49.3%
2009 21,604 3,310 18,294 52.5% 87.1% 46.2%
2010 19,450 3,190 16,260 49.2% 87.0% 41.8%
2011 22,045 3,716 18,329 47.9% 89.8% 39.4%
2012 21,536 3,403 18,133 44.5% 90.6% 35.8%
2013 20,947 3,713 17,234 47.2% 92.2% 37.5%
2014 19,779 4,585 15,194 51.0% 92.5% 38.5%
2015 18,592 4,124 14,468 51.4% 90.4% 40.3%
2016 22,312 4,843 17,469 56.5% 90.5% 47.0%
2017 30,179 6,228 23,951 61.8% 90.0% 54.4%
Table 2. Immigration Court Asylum Denial Rates by Nationality and Representation Status, FY 2012 - FY 2017
(click title to open in a new window)
Nationality Number of Asylum Decisions Percent Denied Asylum
All Not
Represented		 Represented All Not
Represented		 Represented
China 31,176 1,328 29,848 20.3% 78.7% 17.7%
El Salvador 15,667 4,210 11,457 79.2% 95.9% 73.1%
Mexico 14,688 5,550 9,138 88.0% 97.1% 82.5%
Honduras 11,020 3,407 7,613 78.1% 94.5% 70.7%
Guatemala 10,983 2,575 8,408 74.7% 95.1% 68.4%
India 3,890 376 3,514 42.2% 93.9% 36.7%
Nepal 2,722 156 2,566 25.1% 89.1% 21.2%
Haiti 2,602 1,156 1,446 86.1% 95.5% 78.6%
Ethiopia 2,284 214 2,070 17.0% 66.4% 11.9%
Somalia 1,873 881 992 59.4% 80.1% 40.9%
Eritrea 1,822 279 1,543 25.4% 71.0% 17.1%
Egypt 1,566 126 1,440 11.1% 52.4% 7.5%
Cameroon 1,273 194 1,079 26.7% 51.5% 22.2%
Soviet Union 1,215 62 1,153 9.5% 58.1% 6.9%
Russia 1,136 134 1,002 29.8% 79.1% 23.2%
Bangladesh 1,135 167 968 51.5% 89.8% 44.9%
Pakistan 1,126 131 995 36.6% 72.5% 31.9%
Colombia 1,067 205 862 58.6% 87.8% 51.6%
Guinea 946 216 730 40.8% 69.4% 32.3%
Venezuela 914 127 787 49.8% 79.5% 45.0%
Nigeria 853 276 577 58.1% 83.3% 46.1%
Albania 834 49 785 27.3% 79.6% 24.1%
Ecuador 774 140 634 69.0% 90.7% 64.2%
Ghana 736 476 260 70.8% 80.5% 53.1%
Indonesia 724 65 659 50.0% 84.6% 46.6%
Iraq 662 113 549 39.7% 85.8% 30.2%
Sri Lanka 630 57 573 29.0% 84.2% 23.6%
Jamaica 627 301 326 91.4% 96.7% 86.5%
Nicaragua 620 237 383 78.7% 93.7% 69.5%
Syria 612 54 558 18.5% 72.2% 13.3%
Ukraine 610 113 497 41.5% 84.1% 31.8%
Iran 602 104 498 32.1% 66.3% 24.9%
Gambia 581 90 491 33.7% 85.6% 24.2%
Cuba 563 367 196 81.7% 84.2% 77.0%
Armenia 543 65 478 38.5% 81.5% 32.6%
Kenya 543 131 412 55.2% 90.8% 43.9%
Mali 509 49 460 32.0% 87.8% 26.1%
Moldavia (Moldova) 508 44 464 28.3% 79.5% 23.5%
Burkina Faso 497 54 443 21.5% 74.1% 15.1%
Ivory Coast (Cote D'ivoire) 475 53 422 40.6% 88.7% 34.6%
Dominican Republic 425 177 248 87.1% 97.2% 79.8%
Peru 379 76 303 69.4% 98.7% 62.0%
Romania 377 44 333 51.5% 81.8% 47.4%
Brazil 337 75 262 76.0% 96.0% 70.2%
Senegal 337 132 205 60.5% 89.4% 42.0%
Uzebekistan 337 36 301 31.2% 86.1% 24.6%
Kirghizia (Kyrgyzstan) 330 24 306 23.9% 75.0% 19.9%
Mauritania 327 36 291 39.4% 94.4% 32.6%
Sudan 318 102 216 44.0% 90.2% 22.2%
Congo 316 56 260 33.2% 73.2% 24.6%
Mongolia 314 42 272 53.2% 92.9% 47.1%
Name A Country 293 22 271 19.5% 63.6% 15.9%
Burma (Myanmar) 282 34 248 32.6% 85.3% 25.4%
Belarus 243 22 221 17.7% 63.6% 13.1%
Sierra Leone 238 57 181 55.5% 82.5% 47.0%
Democratic Republic of Congo 236 66 170 45.3% 78.8% 32.4%
Yugoslavia 236 12 224 18.6% 91.7% 14.7%
Rwanda 231 32 199 25.1% 59.4% 19.6%
Afghanistan 224 48 176 37.5% 66.7% 29.5%
Philippines 224 83 141 89.7% 98.8% 84.4%
Liberia 217 86 131 62.2% 93.0% 42.0%
Kosovo 210 11 199 18.6% 63.6% 16.1%
Kazakhstan 207 21 186 25.1% 61.9% 21.0%
Burundi 202 29 173 31.2% 82.8% 22.5%
Zimbabwe 192 33 159 46.9% 87.9% 38.4%
Uganda 190 23 167 29.5% 82.6% 22.2%
Vietnam 172 77 95 84.9% 97.4% 74.7%
Togo 162 30 132 48.8% 93.3% 38.6%
Jordan 151 34 117 63.6% 94.1% 54.7%
Turkey 149 24 125 56.4% 70.8% 53.6%
Lebanon 147 20 127 57.8% 65.0% 56.7%
Yemen 145 22 123 46.2% 95.5% 37.4%
Byelorussia (Belarus) 144 2 142 11.1% 100.0% 9.9%
Georgia 124 15 109 35.5% 80.0% 29.4%
Bulgaria 99 15 84 44.4% 60.0% 41.7%
Guyana 99 40 59 78.8% 90.0% 71.2%
Tajikistan (Tadzhik) 97 5 92 38.1% 80.0% 35.9%
Belize 91 44 47 82.4% 97.7% 68.1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 91 35 56 82.4% 94.3% 75.0%
Laos 89 57 32 89.9% 98.2% 75.0%
Azerbaijan 84 7 77 21.4% 100.0% 14.3%
Trinidad and Tobago 84 29 55 78.6% 93.1% 70.9%
Angola 83 30 53 67.5% 96.7% 50.9%
Niger 83 23 60 63.9% 91.3% 53.3%
South Korea 76 20 56 85.5% 100.0% 80.4%
Tanzania 73 19 54 57.5% 84.2% 48.1%
Chad 71 7 64 19.7% 42.9% 17.2%
Fiji 70 21 49 67.1% 100.0% 53.1%
Germany 69 32 37 85.5% 96.9% 75.7%
Bolivia 68 14 54 69.1% 92.9% 63.0%
Benin 67 8 59 43.3% 100.0% 35.6%
Cambodia 67 22 45 71.6% 100.0% 57.8%
Saudi Arabia 66 6 60 30.3% 66.7% 26.7%
Israel 65 19 46 73.8% 94.7% 65.2%
Serbia Montenegro 60 11 49 46.7% 100.0% 34.7%
Hungary 59 22 37 74.6% 95.5% 62.2%
Djibouti 54 4 50 20.4% 100.0% 14.0%
Central African Republic 53 8 45 28.3% 62.5% 22.2%
Morocco 53 16 37 64.2% 81.3% 56.8%
Macedonia 51 7 44 49.0% 100.0% 40.9%
Thailand 51 22 29 84.3% 100.0% 72.4%
Bahamas 44 25 19 81.8% 96.0% 63.2%
South Africa 44 10 34 70.5% 100.0% 61.8%
Algeria 41 6 35 63.4% 100.0% 57.1%
Chile 41 10 31 85.4% 80.0% 87.1%
Canada 40 13 27 65.0% 100.0% 48.1%
Argentina 39 10 29 64.1% 90.0% 55.2%
Poland 39 16 23 87.2% 100.0% 78.3%
Malaysia 38 9 29 50.0% 88.9% 37.9%
Turkmenistan 37 5 32 29.7% 100.0% 18.8%
United Kingdom 37 11 26 70.3% 100.0% 57.7%
Lithuania 36 11 25 77.8% 100.0% 68.0%
Libya 36 7 29 41.7% 71.4% 34.5%
Costa Rica 35 12 23 80.0% 100.0% 69.6%
Greece 33 5 28 45.5% 60.0% 42.9%
Palestine 31 7 24 58.1% 57.1% 58.3%
Bhutan 28 5 23 42.9% 80.0% 34.8%
Italy 28 6 22 75.0% 100.0% 68.2%
Spain 28 7 21 75.0% 71.4% 76.2%
Zambia 28 10 18 67.9% 80.0% 61.1%
Panama 26 13 13 76.9% 84.6% 69.2%
Kuwait 25 1 24 32.0% 0.0% 33.3%
* Nationalities with at least 25 Immigration Court asylum decisions during FY 2012 - FY 2017.
TRAC is a nonpartisan, nonprofit data research center affiliated with the Newhouse School of Public Communications and the Whitman School of Management, both at Syracuse University. For more information, to subscribe, or to donate, contact trac@syr.edu or call 315-443-3563.